In this episode, we’re exploring a surprising idea that’s highly relevant to our work as enablers of change: some of the people most resistant to new practices or scientific advice may actually know the least but believe they know the most. This pattern, known as knowledge overconfidence, has powerful implications for how we engage with farmers and others in agriculture.
This phenomenon has been studied in recent years by Light et al. (2022) who found that people who strongly disagreed with mainstream scientific views on topics like vaccines, genetically modified foods, and climate change scored lowest on objective knowledge tests, yet rated themselves as highly knowledgeable.
This aligns with a well-known concept in psychology called the Dunning–Kruger effect (Dunning, 2011), which describes how people with low ability in a particular area often overestimate their competence. In other words, the less someone knows, the less they realise how much they don’t know and the more confident they tend to be. That misplaced confidence can make it difficult for them to accept new information or even recognise the need to learn more.
While the Light et al. (2022) study was based on public science issues, it rings true in our experience working in agriculture. Whether we’re discussing rotational grazing, water use efficiency or biosecurity, we sometimes encounter individuals who confidently dismiss new ideas or practices. It’s not always stubbornness, instead it may well be knowledge overconfidence.
Let’s give a practical example. Imagine we’re working with a group of graziers in northern Australia. We’re discussing how wet season spelling of paddocks affects pasture recovery and ground cover. Most farmers in the group are curious and keen to try new ideas. But one participant, let’s call him Mick, is adamant: “You don’t need any of that rotational stuff. I’ve been grazing this way for 30 years and the paddock’s fine.”
If we quiz Mick gently, we might find that his understanding of plant recovery times or root reserve replenishment is limited. Yet he feels sure he knows enough and that confidence makes it harder for him to be open to alternatives. Simply giving Mick more data or showing trial results probably won’t be effective. He’s not just lacking knowledge, he doesn’t realise what he doesn’t know.
So how can we respond as extension practitioners? How do we work effectively with people like Mick, in a way that respects their experience while creating space for new learning? We believe the answer lies in sparking curiosity and gently revealing knowledge gaps, rather than pushing facts or proving someone wrong. Here are seven practical strategies we can use in those moments.
Rather than leading with recommendations, we can invite reflection with open-ended questions. For example: “What do you reckon happens to plant roots if the plants are grazed before they’ve fully recovered?” This kind of inquiry helps surface assumptions and creates space for discovery.
Another useful approach is to play the prediction game. Before sharing research results or benchmarking data, we can ask participants to guess the outcome. “What do you think the ground cover will be after six weeks of rest versus two?” When their prediction doesn’t match reality, it can spark a healthy curiosity.
Sharing just one surprising fact can also be a great spark. Rather than a flood of evidence, we offer a single, counterintuitive insight. “Did you know that applying too much nitrogen can actually hinder plant growth?” Then pause. If they’re curious, they’ll want to know more and we can talk about it.
Stories from peers often carry more weight than anything we might present. If a neighbouring farmer shares how they trialled a new practice and were surprised by the results, it might be more effective than a formal presentation from us. We’re more likely to listen when the messenger is trusted, familiar and relatable.
Visual cues can also make a big difference. Simple diagnostic tools like soil tests, satellite imagery, or pasture growth modelling can show farmers something they weren’t aware of. You can get lightbulb moments when someone sees a drone image of patchy ground cover or a gross margin calculator that contradicts their assumptions.
Trialling something small, side by side, can be one of the most powerful ways to learn. Encourage farmers to test a new approach in a small paddock, alongside their usual method. It reduces the risk and gives them ownership of the learning process.
And throughout it all, we can model curiosity in the way we talk. Phrases like “I used to think that too, but then I saw this…” or “That’s interesting, what do you make of that?” keeps the tone open and invites dialogue, not debate.
What ties all these strategies together is a shift in mindset. We’re not in the business of information transfer, we’re in the business of change. And change doesn’t come from telling someone they’re wrong. It comes from helping them realise there’s more to learn.
As the researchers noted, knowledge overconfidence is a major barrier to learning because it blocks the very curiosity that drives change. If people believe they already know everything they need to, they have no reason to listen, reflect, or adapt. That’s why challenging overconfidence, gently, respectfully, and with good design, is such an important part of our work.
We’d love to hear your take on this. Have you seen knowledge overconfidence in your extension work? What strategies have helped you create those “aha” moments? Add a comment below with your experiences, tips, and ideas. We’d love this to be a conversation.
Resources
Dunning, D. (2011). The Dunning–Kruger effect: On being ignorant of one’s own ignorance. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 44, pp. 247-296). Academic Press. Available online
Light, N., Fernbach, P. M., Rabb, N., Geana, M. V., & Sloman, S. A. (2022). Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues. Science Advances, 8(30), eabo0038. Available online
Absolutely excellent – nice work Denise and John. Showing how small interactions can make a difference.
Thanks Les! Yes, little things can make a big difference!
Thanks Les!
That is a very good insight. I have been also a victim of knowledge overconfidence.
Glad to hear you liked it Buthe! I suspect we’ve all been victims at one time or another…